B&E analyses the outcome of allowing foreign carriers to invest in India’s domestic airlines. Finally some good news, many presume. The reality is actually quite the opposite.
If North American carriers have set standards of growth over the years, so have airlines in India. Only difference is – for India’s domestic industry, growth has always come in a package of losses. And over the years, despite optimism galore, all we can discuss aloud are the canyons of losses which have been etched into their financial books. Exaggerated? Turn the clock back to 2006, when airlines around the world returned to their profit-making ways after half-a-decade-long patch of drought. Since then (leading up to FY2010), global airlines have recorded profits amounting to $18.70 billion. Of this, North American carriers contributed $5.7 billion. The Indian carriers on the other hand, have been living on a prayer. Despite a 48.83% jump in total passengers carried (in FY2010-11), a 64% increase in the number of operational airports (to 82), and a 158.13% jump in fleet size, their losses have only escalated. During a five year period, when global airlines made billions, India’s domestic carriers lost $5.43 billion.
The carnage on Indian airstrips for years now, has been visible. Woebegone tales of the big three – Air India (AI), Kingfisher (KFA) and Jet Airways (Jet) – requiring urgent cash infusion have become a daily back-fence talk in the aviation circles. [A fast fact: since FY1997-98 the big three have recorded losses and debt to the tune of $3.186 trillion – roughly three times India’s GDP in FY2010.] So have strikes by pilots and other staff, winding up of operational arms to reduce losses, and problems with ATF prices and taxes levied on it by various States. The big domestic airlines got into a mode of unceremonious self-slaughter by trying to outdo each other played against them. The stifling environment did the rest.
So what is the Ministry of Civil Aviation’s (MoCA) last resort to keep the industry afloat, especially the big three? Attract investments by foreign carriers through the FDI route – MoCA suggests the limit should be 24%, while the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) recommends that it should be anywhere between 26% to 49%. A piece of smile-winning news after long. But will this prove manna to the ailing Indian carriers?
Many suggest that this move could open up the gates for dollars to flood the Indian aviation space. And if ever foreign airlines would require any convincing, it should not be more bothersome than a tiny gastric event in a marathon. Let us not get befuddled. Forecasting the outcome of allowing FDI in an airline industry that is – to say the least – battered, is no easy task. Forget India, this has been true even in a liberal, transparent environment like US. There was much hope that foreign airline participation and their involvement in the strategic decision-making process would make life easy for ailing US carriers when times got tough. It was not to be. Between 1975 and 2010, US carriers lost a total of $273 billion, and 44 filed for bankruptcy. And how many foreign carriers did we see come to the rescue? For the sake of a 25% ownership – zero!
If North American carriers have set standards of growth over the years, so have airlines in India. Only difference is – for India’s domestic industry, growth has always come in a package of losses. And over the years, despite optimism galore, all we can discuss aloud are the canyons of losses which have been etched into their financial books. Exaggerated? Turn the clock back to 2006, when airlines around the world returned to their profit-making ways after half-a-decade-long patch of drought. Since then (leading up to FY2010), global airlines have recorded profits amounting to $18.70 billion. Of this, North American carriers contributed $5.7 billion. The Indian carriers on the other hand, have been living on a prayer. Despite a 48.83% jump in total passengers carried (in FY2010-11), a 64% increase in the number of operational airports (to 82), and a 158.13% jump in fleet size, their losses have only escalated. During a five year period, when global airlines made billions, India’s domestic carriers lost $5.43 billion.
The carnage on Indian airstrips for years now, has been visible. Woebegone tales of the big three – Air India (AI), Kingfisher (KFA) and Jet Airways (Jet) – requiring urgent cash infusion have become a daily back-fence talk in the aviation circles. [A fast fact: since FY1997-98 the big three have recorded losses and debt to the tune of $3.186 trillion – roughly three times India’s GDP in FY2010.] So have strikes by pilots and other staff, winding up of operational arms to reduce losses, and problems with ATF prices and taxes levied on it by various States. The big domestic airlines got into a mode of unceremonious self-slaughter by trying to outdo each other played against them. The stifling environment did the rest.
So what is the Ministry of Civil Aviation’s (MoCA) last resort to keep the industry afloat, especially the big three? Attract investments by foreign carriers through the FDI route – MoCA suggests the limit should be 24%, while the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) recommends that it should be anywhere between 26% to 49%. A piece of smile-winning news after long. But will this prove manna to the ailing Indian carriers?
Many suggest that this move could open up the gates for dollars to flood the Indian aviation space. And if ever foreign airlines would require any convincing, it should not be more bothersome than a tiny gastric event in a marathon. Let us not get befuddled. Forecasting the outcome of allowing FDI in an airline industry that is – to say the least – battered, is no easy task. Forget India, this has been true even in a liberal, transparent environment like US. There was much hope that foreign airline participation and their involvement in the strategic decision-making process would make life easy for ailing US carriers when times got tough. It was not to be. Between 1975 and 2010, US carriers lost a total of $273 billion, and 44 filed for bankruptcy. And how many foreign carriers did we see come to the rescue? For the sake of a 25% ownership – zero!
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